The yo-yo pattern predicted for the first half of November continues to work out as advertised. Rainy days and a couple of days of cold temperatures come in just long enough to let us know it is November before retreating and letting sunshine and 60s return. The same will apply this week but we have another mostly sunny and seasonally warm day tomorrow before the yo-yo swings back to chilly and raw.
Surface high pressure located to the east of the region is helping pump in southerly winds and above normal temperatures. This will result in mid and upper 60 degree highs for tomorrow across northern and central sections of the Ohio Valley with lower 70s for southern areas. The problem with warm surges in November is that usually a storm is soon to follow. By late Tuesday, a storm system producing severe weather in the Plains this afternoon and evening will push northeast helping kick off showers and a few thunderstorms late Tuesday in the west and spreading eastward on Wednesday. Behind the front temperatures will fall a good 20 degrees setting up chilly but dry weather to move back in Thursday in the west and Friday in the east.
Another facet of this storm will be of the winter variety. While the Ohio Valley will receive rain and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms, parts of Northern Iowa, southeast Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and the western corner of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan are in store for a few inches of snow. No strong cold air is involved currently but this storm will produce enough of its own cold air to give those regions a few inches of snow.
Long term focus continues to be on the slowly evolving pattern that should lead the area into a gradually stormier and cooler trend of weather for the second half of November. While cold air locked up in Canada and over towards Siberia will keep those areas cold, down our way seasonal weather will remain dominant. However, a few signs are pointing to the gradual change. Stronger blocking up around Greenland will start to take a hold in the next 10 days, along with subtle ridging near Alaska. These two factors will force a more suppressed jet stream allowing the cold air that has been bottled up to start working down into the eastern United States. While northwest Canada and parts of the western United States will get an early winter preview, people itching for winter weather on our side of the country must wait a bit longer.
The lone question that will take a bit more time to figure out is will winter arrive all at once or will this be a progressive step down pattern? With the extreme nature of storms going on across many parts of the world, one hedges to lean toward an extreme event. Severe weather, potential blizzards, and strong winds will likely set off the change in a couple of weeks. As always I will be watching to bring you the latest updates on the evolving and exciting weather pattern. Until then enjoy the relatively nice weather!
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By Weather Specialist Josh Ketchen