Countless times over the last several months unusual storms have been occurring across the World and the United States. While no single storm can be placed on Climate Change or Global Warming, it is apparent that the overall climate on Earth is changing quite drastically. Stronger than average earthquakes are occurring literally every day and scores of volcanoes are stewing waiting to blow its top. Combine all this with a quieter than average sun with the occasional strong solar flare, the effects it is having on our local weather is astonishing. To say that I know what is going to happen would be incorrect but what I can confidently say is that extremes in weather will be quite common for the foreseeable future.
I am on record of the planet beginning to cool and should continue to cool significantly over the next several decades. This is using past signals to shape the future not some radical thought that is being stated just to be difficult. A few areas of focus is what could be a record setting cold profile in the Pacific. Latest chart out of the Coupled Forecast System (CFS) is predicting an earth shattering cold Nina. I am dubbing this the “Super Nina”. Pro-Global Warming experts dubbed the “Super Nino” phenomenon and how record warm waters were going to be occurring now, which is the exact opposite, so I see no problem calling this a “Super Nina”.
Nina Forecasted To Be Record Levels by Mid Winter; Courtesy of The Climate Prediction Center
Now before the reader just blindly follows the sheep, I am suspect of this getting this low; however, when watching the trends each month over the last several months, this forecast has been trending colder and colder. The bottom drops out over the next couple of weeks and crashing to a record low of -2.8 Kelvin (roughly 5 degrees Farenheit) by the middle of winter. As is accustomed to the CFS, it has a tendency to go to the extreme before correcting back to a more plausible solution but with the bizarre weather happening all across the globe it has me scratching my head on where to go with this. Parlaying this into weather close to home in the Ohio Valley, how often do we get three cut-off lows that deepen in the eastern half of the United States in late summer through mid fall? This is very unusual and why the upcoming evolution of weather patterns are expected to be unusual as well.
Taking a peek into next week, the GFS is already hinting at an unusually deep mid level low for late October. Again the stressing point is not that these storms have never happened in the past but how many are going this route and growing in strength as they progress East is scary to think what can happen. If one uses their imagination slower, colder, and more moisture-laden storms for the winter season could create nightmares if this is a runaway feedback.
To explain, for several decades we had profiles across the globe stacked warm, thus always having big events lead to outlandish warming patterns. However as we evolve deeper in the 2010 decade, colderĀ profiles are surfacing all across the world and leading to outlandish events, primarily cold, in parts of the planet. This is a hypothetical analysis because the information is fairly new but there is a reason we have had Ice Ageās in the past, so why can this not be the beginnings of much colder times on Earth? So if the planet is stacked cold are these unusually deep storms the precursor for far worse times? A lot of questions to be answered but just taking the last couple of storms and now this current storms, this is a very unusual pattern.
Bringing all of that to the near term, expect a deep mid level low to intensify over the central Ohio Valley with the attendant surface low deepening in the eastern half of the region on Wednesday. Periods of moderate rain and even some embedded thunderstorms will blanket the region. Rainfall could approach two inches in some locales but a healthy one inch looks to be common place. Temperatures will be mid November like with mid 40s to low 50s and when you add a bit of wind, a sting will be felt. Thursday gets worse where most areas will stay in the 40s with brisk winds and scattered showers. Wind chill values will be present all day in the 30s. Finally by late Thursday the low begins to sluggishly pull north and east ending the rain threat over the western and southern portions of the Ohio Valley but clouds will remain thick on Friday. Yet another 4 to 5 day storm in the Ohio Valley in the fall when you expect rapid progression. Unusual Weather? You better believe it!
For instant updates check me out at twitter @ http://twitter.com/OhioValleyWx or on facebook @ http://www.facebook.com/OVWeather
By Weather Specialist Josh Ketchen