Unsettled Weather Returns Mid Week, Growing Cooler Late

The great weather continues but changes are coming. The great weather that will last over a week will start to change by late Tuesday and really begin to change by late next week. Hopefully you took advantage or will take advantage of the notice that the first 10-14 days of October, outside the 1st day of the month, would be relatively dry and pleasantly warm across much of the Ohio Valley because by late Tuesday clouds begin to roll in, thicken, lower, and then lead to a chance of a shower or two by Wednesday and last until early Friday. The good news though is this is not going to be a widespread heavy rain and temperatures will only cool off a bit. There is the potential of the east coast trough and nor’easter slowing things down over the eastern and northern portions of the region to keep clouds and a few more showers around for Friday into early Saturday but most areas appear to be rain free for most of next weekend.

Back to the short term, sunshine and warm temperature will last through Tuesday with highs generally in the upper 70s in the northeast to the low and mid 80s in the southwest. Temperatures begin to cool into Wednesday with more clouds and threat of showers but still reach the low to middle 70s. As mentioned above, that east coast trough and nor’easter though will make forecasting in the east much tougher to decipher. A shift 50 to 100 miles west with that storm system could bring better rains, more clouds, and cooler temperatures to the eastern portions of the region so check back to get the latest.

Friday, October 21 Shows a Sharp Trough Over the Region; Courtesy of NCEP

A bigger story that has been the focus is when will this pattern change back to a colder and stormier period. The good news is it is still 10 days away, the bad news is when it comes it will be a sharp change. If you have been following the severe weather in the Great Plains, I mentioned patterns like this can lead to severe weather. That option looks to be a viable threat. While it is too far away to know the exact timing and severity of the situation, when it does come it will be quick hitting. Behind that system will open the door for cold air to flood into the region and cool the region down significantly. Again, being two weeks away means that this will change and evolve over time but the groundwork is there for colder air to pour into the region post October 20th.

As most know, when big troughs come across the Ohio Valley and Northeast part of the United States, I look underneath the trough to look for tropical mischief. While the “heart of the season” is over for the tropics, warm air pooling still exists in parts of the Gulf and Atlantic so a threat for a tropical disturbance remains a possibility. Depending on how the trough orients itself will spell the difference between a Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico threat or a southwestern Atlantic threat. Again, this is too far out to to lay down specifics but just throwing out some ideas for the reader to know what I am looking for. While I do not see any major hurricane impacting the United States, there could be something roaming nearby to factor into the weather equation.

Last but not least is the snow flake potential for October. Over the last couple of posts I have mentioned that I believe parts of the Ohio Valley could see snow flakes by the end of the month. At this time I see nothing to change my call. While nothing appears to be shaping up for anything significant, the fact that snow flakes could be falling will remind most that winter is on the doorstep. Ironically, usually 10 days after a pattern of warm and dry weather pattern ends over our region there is a good threat of some snow flakes. How will things play out this year? We will have to wait and see but last year we had a period of mild weather and relatively dry conditions come to an end on October 27th and on November 6th, a few areas had some flurries.

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By Weather Specialist Josh Ketchen