As advertised last week, while the region was socked in with clouds and on and off rain showers, light was at the end of the tunnel. By late Saturday in the west and early Tuesday if the far east, that light had stretched across the region in the form of brilliant sunshine. That trend will continue for the next four days before the weather begins to change again over the Ohio Valley.
High pressure dominates currently leading to mild to pleasantly warm afternoons and clear and refreshing nights. As wet as it was last week, it is as dry this week. Dew points in the upper 40s and low 50s leads to enjoying outdoor activities with temperatures in the middle and upper 70s to low 80s and lack of humidity. If there was ever a Friday to call in sick, do it. This is also the weekend to get all the late season yard work completed as well because there is a good chance you will not see a weekend like this until next May. With that being said, expect Friday-Sunday to be mostly sunny and pleasantly warm.
Expected Highs For Saturday in the Upper 70s Region Wide; Courtesy of NCEP
It appears Friday is the day where the center of the 500 millibar ridge sits right over top of the region and that will allow temps to be near 80 or into the low and middle 80s region wide. Saturday that mid level ridge will push off to the east a bit but keeping temperatures fairly uniform over the Ohio Valley. Nevertheless, I do not think many complaints will be made if Friday is in the low to middle 80s, Saturday temperatures range from the upper 70s to low 80s, and Sunday is a shade cooler with middle 70s to near 80. Night time lows throughout this three day stretch will generally range between the lower to middle 50s and just for reassurance, no chance of rain.
Things begin to turn more active Monday. As any change begins it will be very subtle with a bit of a wind shift and a few more clouds. Monday will still be dry but more cirrus and cumulus clouds will dot the sky and winds will start to increase just a bit. As we head towards Monday night and into Tuesday morning, clouds will slowly thicken and lower but with little moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico rain chances will hold off until late in the day. So for Monday and Tuesday still expect highs to be in the middle 70s to near 80 on Monday, slipping back a couple degrees on Tuesday before the rain chances arrive late Tuesday afternoon. The weak cold front, as has been the case since Labor Day, will have a tendency to bog down around the region keeping the chance of showers through most of the middle and end of next week. It is too far out to know for certain how wet it will be but after a stretch of 8-10 days of brilliant sunshine and pleasant temperatures things will begin to change.
Taking a peak out to the end of next week, the following weekend, and the start of the following week (October 17) it appears more active weather is in store along with the potential of a strong cold front and a flip back to chillier weather. Things will have to be fine tuned as we draw closer but indications suggest that we will begin the customary roller coaster ride as we head towards the end of the month with sharp cold fronts and thunderstorms, followed by brief warm ups, only to be hit again by another strong cold front. I have mentioned the threat of severe weather and this is the type of situation that can lead to severe weather across the area so when that time comes, make sure to keep an eye to the sky.
My last bit of concern is if we will see the chance of snow flakes for October for some parts of the Ohio Valley. My contention is that we will see some snow flakes fly, especially for the northern half of the region, before October is over. Bitter air masses are aligning to the north and when one of these air masses decides to break off and slide into the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley, the moisture field and temperature profiles look cold enough for some snow flakes. That is still three weeks away so no need to focus on that right now. The thing to focus on right now is the splendid weather that will continue for another 4 days with sunshine and pleasantly warm temperatures.
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By Weather Specialist Josh Ketchen