Brief Warm Up Before Stronger Cool Shot

No question fall has gripped the region. Cloudy skies, drizzle, light rain, and northerly winds made it feel much more like October than early September. Some sun broke out Friday and a little more on Saturday to allow temperatures to feel quite nice with low and middle 70s. A few scattered showers and thundershowers were around but many areas stayed dry. Sunday looks to be about the same with middle 70s, filtered sunshine and hit or miss showers and thundershowers. The biggest change will come Monday and Tuesday as the area will experience a brief warm surge out ahead of the next cold front poised to move in by late Tuesday evening. This is a pattern most often associated with early to middle Spring and early to middle Autumn. High pressure briefly builds in, winds flip to the south, warm air surges only to be quickly beaten down by a strong cold front reinforcing the chill.

For the start of the work week expect partly sunny skies with temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s on Monday. Tuesday should feature much of the same but with a bit stronger breezes from the southwest enabling a bit warmer air to creep in. Area wide should have temperatures in the low to middle 80s but a few of the hotter locations could flirt with the upper 80s. Before some of you start to get bent out of shape that the heat is coming back, it is not. As mentioned prior, a strong cold front will be centered over the Midwest and making en roads to the Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. With the front will come a threat of showers and thunderstorms. This is not shaping up to be a soaking that some areas saw late last weekend nor does it appear dynamics are in place for strong to heavy thunderstorms but a few showers and thunderstorms will cross the region.

As the cold front crosses through the area, so will the cooler air. In many cases, such as what we have coming, temperatures can remain very warm on a south wind until frontal passage. Temperatures for many areas could be in the middle to upper 70s with rising humidity as you head in for the evening and might even think about turning on the air conditioner to cool it off but when you head out the door for school or work on Wednesday morning temperatures will have cooled into the middle 50s to low 60s with a northwesterly wind and lowering humidity. Come Wednesday afternoon temperatures will be back into the 70s but the biggest changes come Thursday as a cool, Canadian High settles into the region.

Saturday Morning Lows for the Region; Courtesy of pro.accuweather.com

If you have been reading this for a few months the issue of a very early frost had been outlined for parts of the region back in Spring. Long term models suggested it and late this week rural and well sheltered areas could see a light frost in some areas. Most city and suburban areas will not have to worry about any threat but with a strong high pressure over head at night, temperatures could be as much as 10 degrees cooler. Upper 30s seem like a good possibility next Saturday morning. These temperatures will fluctuate a bit but the fact some areas in northern Indiana and northern Ohio dip into the upper 30s is way ahead of schedule for this early in the season. The payoff will be simply delightful weather in the afternoons. High temperatures Thursday through next Sunday should range from the middle 60s to low 70s under mostly sunny skies. I recommend getting out and enjoying weekends like what is coming because in a couple months we will be talking cold and snow. I know some snow lovers are out there so I will say that I do believe October snow flakes will be a real possibility by the end of next month.

Potential Hurricane Influence To the Pattern in 2 Weeks; Courtesy of NCEP

Taking a gander into the future it appears that the tropics still want to have a say so in dictating the pattern. What comes from that is uncertain at this time. In seasons with La Nina profiles the tropics tend to have more influence on the weather because they allow for development farther north and have more influence in baroclinic processes; in other words, tropical factors can cause extratropical elements to diverge from normal. With that being said, do not be surprised if our area has another cut off low with gray skies and showers like we had last week or we have a day or two of summer’s last grasp holding on for dear life. As the time moves closer things will become more clear, so stay tuned.

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