Cooling Faster Than What Even Some Thought

With Global Warming and Global Cooling debates every single day across the World this leads to more and more people coming up with evidence to try to support each one’s cause. Being of strong scientific orientation, I naturally swing to how processes and cycles work throughout the 4.6 billion years of our planet. The Earth has warm cycles, then Earth has cool cycles but Earth will then warm again. It sounds monotonous but why a myriad of people out there try to justify that in only 30 years man can change things this dramatically just boggles my mind. I always state and will continue to state that if the Earth warms beyond what has occurred before then I will gladly concede the argument that Man can affect Earth this dramatically; however, I am confident that Man cannot do that because Nature ultimately does control the processes.

Temperature Trend Versus Carbon Dioxide

Courtesy of HadCRUT;

Courtesy of HadCRUT;

Many debates have claimed that carbon dioxide increases directly relate to the increase in global temperatures. This is just another graph to negate that philosophy. Carbon dioxide has steadily increased while Earth’s temperatures over the last 15 years have decreased. This is not a one to one parallel but the trend is evident that no correlation can be drawn. The atmosphere is a free window for carbon dioxide to get absorbed by vegetation or radiate out back into space equaling a negligible increase or decrease in global temperatures.

An issue might arise and say this is only 15 years of data which is clearly not long enough to know if this theory is true. I would answer with the response “You are correct and neither is 30 years to assume that the Earth all of a sudden wants to warm to unprecedented levels.” This is what pro-warming politicians and supporters want us to believe that 15 years are not enough but 30 years is enough. It simply is not enough time.

NASA’s Hansen Versus True Temperatures

Courtesy of

Most have heard of Doctor James Hansen and his projections that the Earth would cook for eternity. While a man of great knowledge and intelligence about space and astronomy, his meteorology leaves a lot to be desired for. GISS, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, a parallel to NASA, decided to join the Warm NASA predictions later on to emphasize warmer times. Looking at the graph it is clearly evident that during the naturally occurring warm cycles of the oceans and strong sun periods the Earth warmed but then as the ocean’s began to cool, which they are still doing, the graphs begin to lose their importance. Hansen had a runaway idea of no cooling and the Earth clearly is cooling. Even his third and coolest scenario still is too warm. All three scenarios were designed to show that the Earth overall will always keep warming if you stretch the data out enough. As for GISS, my own opinion is that this model was implemented to skew data as being cooler back in the 1930s through 1970s to make things look warmer now. The GISS pretty much has the Arctic regions being insanely above normal, yet ice thickness is increasing and coverage is beginning to catch back up to normal in 2011. Explain that one to me?

Sea Level Rise Prediction Versus Reality

Courtesy of Vermeer and Rahmstorf and

Fear mongers started proclaiming that several towns along coasts, including Florida, New York, and California, would start to lose shore and at worst start going underwater with Global Warming. Once again a few years of increase signaled total destruction. Is it not amazing that since the real noticeable cooling of the globe since 2007 stopped the increase in sea level and it is even beginning to fall. The globe sits at roughly 4.5 cm and falling where predictions had the sea level rising to over 6 cm in 2011. A centimeter and a half might not seem like a huge deal but considering the Earth is over 70% water that is very significant. With trends expected to continue this way, the sea level rise should continue to drop off as more ice forms in the high latitudes of the World’s oceans.

Coupled Forecast System Looking into Fall 2011 to Winter 20112; Surface Temperatures

Courtesy of NCEP

This illustration shows the way the Earth is going over the next several months. As it is July, the Coupled Forecast System (CFS) paints a pretty normal picture worldwide with temperatures. It might be just a tad above normal but when you go into the fall and then winter of 2011 when you take a look at the December map it looks markedly cooler. I would estimate that the Earth is 60% cooler or normal and 40% above normal. While this is only six months out, the pattern continues that the Earth wants to continue to cool despite all the reports of the Earth continuing to warm. The biggest focus are the tropics and oceans. On a broad scale map, the tropical temperatures are holding around normal to slightly below normal.

Coupled Forecast System Through December 2011; Ocean Temperatures

Courtesy of NCEP

Most significantly though is the Pacific Ocean temperatures going much cooler as we head towards 2012. Despite reports of the ocean responding back to warmer conditions or a weak El Nino coming back, latest data says nothing at all is going to happen. The stance taken here is one of a weak La Nina continuing or strengthening a bit and if the CFS is anywhere close another downturn in temperatures for the globe is coming for the Winter months into Spring of 2012. Once again, nature has a mind of her own despite what man does or says. What is scary is that the prediction is even colder then I thought.

Some probably read and think I am completely biased towards a colder climate and maybe I am but how does one argue when evidence is showing up even stronger then I was envisioning for late 2011 and early 2012. To match the above chart of cooling ocean temps in the Pacific is the Linear Graph Chart:

Linear Graph of the Cooling Nino Regions in the Pacific Ocean

Courtesy of NCEP

Right now the forecast is only calling for a weak La Nina but the fact that current forecasts are running too positive in the Nino regions chances are that another near moderate La Nina is on the way. When you have moderate or strong La Nina’s, global temperatures tumble. All this leads to another run of colder than what most saw possible happening to the Earth’s temperatures. I state this and will state it again, this is not an article to force ideas on a person. It is a piece of writing hoping to let you, the individual go out and find data, compare and contrast differences from what you hear and what you see so that each one of you are better informed and know the real truth of what is going on with our planet. How anyone thinks a human can control nature is startling but when you become more informed you will realize this is not the case.

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Posted by Josh Ketchen on Jul 5 2011. Filed under WEATHER. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

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